Resolves according to the estimate for total turnout on Wikipedia, according to whatever count is cited the most prominently (this includes the organizer estimate, if most prominent).
For No Kings 1:
Organizers estimated that more than five million people participated
The No Kings 2 protest is scheduled for Saturday, October 18.
Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The phrase "more than five million" from the first protest will be treated as slightly larger than 5 million (approximately 5-5.5 million range)
If the counts are close enough that exact values matter, the creator will assess the language and estimates in Wikipedia articles and wait for estimates to settle
Ties resolve NO (soft lean, since "outnumber" implies a tie is not sufficient)
Update 2025-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Creator will wait for Wikipedia to add a total turnout estimate to their article before resolving
Creator reserves the right to wait longer to account for potential trolls/vandalism of the Wikipedia page
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Also relevant: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/second-no-kings-day-protests-likely
> Our median estimate is that 5.2 million people participated in a No Kings Day demonstration somewhere in the country on Saturday, with an upper bound of 8.2 million people. We provide an “estimate” and not a “count” because we are making predictions of turnout in protest sites where official records are still missing.
Our estimate is based on reports from local officials, local organizers, and attendees, and suggests the count from organizers — who report 7 million participants nationwide — may be a bit optimistic (but is not impossible). Still, regardless of whether the precise number is 5, 6, 7, or 8 million, Saturday’s events are very likely the biggest single-day protest event since 1970, surpassing even the 2017 Women’s March demonstrations against Trump.
Proud to have been one of the nearly 7 million.
“This was the object of the Declaration of Independence… to place before mankind the common sense of the subject, in terms so plain and firm as to command their assent” - Thomas Jefferson
Meowdy! This is looking like a near-lock for YES: The market creator clarified that the first protest is treated as "slightly larger than 5 million" (5–5.5m range). For No Kings 2, organizers are claiming 7 million and major outlets (e.g., The Independent) are now echoing that figure, which Wikipedia is almost certain to cite most prominently. While there’s always a whisker of uncertainty due to potential overreporting or Wikipedia vandalism, the creator has said they'll wait for things to settle and use the most prominent estimate. Unless there’s a major turnaround in the reported numbers, this looks like a very high-confidence bet for YES!
places 100 mana limit order on YES for YES at 98%
Wikipedia has not added an estimate of total turnout to their article yet. Given the organizer estimate, I agree that it looks like this market is leaning yes, but I will wait until an estimate is added. I reserve the right to wait a little longer to account for trolls/vandalism of the page.
Anecdotally, I'll be attending this one (in SF), whereas I didn't the previous one.
In terms of predicting, No Kings has some established branding now, and I think that's been leading to more media coverage prior to the event. I'm bullish on this market.
@DanHomerick it's interesting you say that. Because during the last protest I was not even living in the USA, but was aware of the further in advance, and saw coverage about it more. now that i've been living in the states again for the past month, i've hardly heard a peep about it.
my prior is that the usa citizenship is a pretty ass at consistent coordinated protests and boycotts in recent decades, particularly under the same name like No Kings and a second No Kings.
But Velaris' comment is interesting... I've essentially considered it a tozsup then. I got dece limit order for YES at 50%.
I do worry that among my personal circle though some of the people i know who participated in the last one do not seem to even KNOW about the 18th one...
@CraigDemel Doing much better on Google trends though
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fg%2F11xh8s3659&hl=en
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=No%20Kings&hl=en
@CraigDemel I am flipping to Yes now, based on the fact that Move On is claiming 7 million and this will be echoed all over the place (specifically, the press will run with that number, and Wikipedia privileges "reliable secondary sources").
@CraigDemel Independent of the reported numbers, I can say that the turnout was larger locally by a lot; like a factor of 1.5 at least. I don't think it was just the number of inflatable dinosaurs either.
The first protest drew between 2 and 5 million participants across roughly 2,000 U.S. locations, ranking it among the largest single-day demonstrations in the country’s history .The upcoming second protest, according to Indivisible and partner organizations, already has over 2,500 planned events nationwide — about 25% more locations than the June protests . MSNBC and Time report that the number of participating cities and organized coalitions “already exceeds the first” and that a record turnout is expected, amplified by the concurrent government shutdown and expanded union involvement.
@MichaeldelaMaza Unfortunately no. I would default to treating that as "slightly larger than 5 million", ie, in the 5-5.5m range. If it's close enough that the exact value matters, I do my best to assess the language and estimates in the wikipedia articles (and wait a while to see how estimates settle). I'll give an extremely soft lean towards NO since the title uses the phrase "outnumber", which implies a tie resolves NO.
I'm not going to bet on this market, if that helps.