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MANIFOLD
Will Manifold drop to 10,000 or fewer Monthly Active Users by the end of 2023?
20
Ṁ370Ṁ7.4k
resolved Aug 28
Resolved
YES

Resolution base on the numbers reported here: https://manifold.markets/stats

Resolves "YES" if Manifold drops to 10,000 monthly active users or below between market creation (8/21) and the end of 2023.

Resolves "NO" otherwise.


Resolves "N/A" if Manifold stops reporting monthly active users to the public.

Other markets:

/DanMan314/will-manifold-reach-10000-or-fewer

/DanMan314/will-manifold-reach-9000-or-fewer-m

/DanMan314/will-manifold-reach-8000-or-fewer-m

/DanMan314/will-manifold-reach-7000-or-fewer-m

/DanMan314/will-manifold-reach-6000-or-fewer-m

/DanMan314/will-manifold-reach-5000-or-fewer-m

/DanMan314/will-manifold-reach-4000-or-fewer-m

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predictedYES

Resolves YES @DanMan314

I can't see the exact number on mobile (no mouseover popopsoj the chart) but it's below 10,000.

Edit: 9,918

predictedYES

Argh 10,003

predictedNO

No one else here is a believer?

I’m confused. Can you rephrase the question?

Are you asking if there will be <10K+1 MAU by EOY?

predictedYES

@oh MAU are currently >10,000. The question is asking whether MAU will be ≤10,000 at any point in 2023.

@chrisjbillington Thanks so much!

I'm open to changing the word "reach", which I think might be confusing. Any suggestions?

predictedNO

@DanMan314 Good plan

predictedYES

@DanMan314 "drop to", "decline to", "sink to"?