The Keynesian Beauty Contest is a game theory experiment where a group of players are asked to guess a number between 0 and 100. In this case, to reduce lag, I've only given the options 0-25. The winner of the contest is the player(s) who guess closest to half the average of all the guesses.

This is an attempt to perform this experiment on Manifold, but using continuous averaging of options. At close I will resolve the market to a linear weighting of the options above and below half the average of the unrounded probability weighted value of the options OVER TIME.

For example, if all options are bid down to 0% except 4 and 9, and 4 stays at 30% the whole time, and 9 stays at 70%, the final result is (4*.3 + 9*.7) / 2 = 7.5 / 2 = 3.75, which would mean this market would resolve 25% 3 and 75% 4.

Unnecessary? Overcomplicated? We're all nerds here, deal with it.

UPDATE

Sixth version of the code: https://pastebin.com/LiMsPpFa

Go search for bugs: /DanMan314/will-someone-find-a-bug-in-the-sixt

This may not be the final version I use to resolve the market. I'll re-run it when I feel like it, and post the output - I'm not holding myself to any particular schedule.

Changelog:

• Fixed a bug in linear weighting causing resolution to be flipped when decimal portion was <.5

• Fixed bet fetching to fetch all bets instead of just the first 1000

• Fixed prematurely rounding causing some floating point issues when converting to int

• Fixed not accounting for close time if the market is closed

• Fixed rounding issue causing resolutions that didn't add up to 100%

• Added a "current weighted sum" print just because I thought it was interesting

• Fix still splitting the resolution on exact final answers

Output 11/30 2:15PM PST

Total Bets: 50339
Current Weighted Sum: 1.1971416919637063

Time Weighted Sum: 1.965951188162939
Final Answer: 0.9829755940814695
Resolution: 2% 0, 98% 1