The Keynesian Beauty Contest is a game theory experiment where a group of players are asked to guess a number between 0 and 100.. The winner of the contest is the player(s) who guess closest to 

In this version, the options increase exponentially up to more than a million. 

I believe this will make the market significantly more dynamic, and greatly increase the incentive to "fight" over the final resolution.

I've also made the market only 2 weeks long, since so much mana ends up locked up.

This is an attempt to perform this experiment on Manifold, 

but using continuous averaging of options

a linear weighting of the options above and below half the average of the unrounded probability weighted value of the options 

For example, if all options are bid down to 0% except 32 and 64, and 32 stays at 30% the whole time, and 64 stays at 70%, the final result is (32*.3 + 64*.7) / 2 = 54.4 / 2 = 27.2, which would mean this market would resolve to 30% 16, 70% 32.

Obscenely unnecessary? Wildly overcomplicated? We're all nerds here, deal with it.

This may not be the final version I use to resolve the market. I'll re-run it when I feel like it, and post the output - I'm not holding myself to any particular schedule.

Total Bets: 27323
Current Weighted Sum: 33146.69254685717

Time Weighted Sum: 31718.00963213971
Final Answer: 15859.004816069855
Resolution: 6% 8192, 94% 16384