Resolves YES if Jimmy Kimmel Live! is back on air with an episode taped after Sep 17th, 2025 by the end of October. Otherwise, resolves NO.
Update 2025-09-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Airing on a different channel still counts, as long as it's the same show name ("Jimmy Kimmel Live!") and Jimmy Kimmel is present.
Update 2025-09-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Must be aired on TV as an episode of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!".
Online-only streams or podcasts do not count.
Update 2025-09-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Different title generally does not count.
Narrow exception: If the show is rebranded but otherwise the same (e.g., same network, staff, format) and broadly recognized as the same show, it may count; this is a high bar and at the creator's discretion.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,843 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,135 | |
| 3 | Ṁ972 | |
| 4 | Ṁ822 | |
| 5 | Ṁ798 |
Can’t ask for much more than the man himself using the exact phrasing in the title - resolving YES!
https://www.instagram.com/p/DO-G6sikSiE/?igsh=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==
I did put up a question on the ratings for tonights kimmel live.
https://manifold.markets/brianwang/will-kimmel-live-have-over-3-millio?r=YnJpYW53YW5n
I am not going to create a market for it because resolving it will have complaints and protests here on Manifold. But I think Sinclair stations does not put Kimmel back on. They preempt Kimmel on their ABC stations. Rolling out CFF reruns or expanded 11pm news. Red-market insulation (OK/AL/TX) neuters protests—odds of meaningful boycotts <15%. Revenue up 20-30%. Disney will pay other affiliates higher fees to avoid a wider revolt. Nexstar may preempt Kimmel in red markets.
@Yakushi12345 so, I bought yes when the chance was like 38% and now that it’s 98% I payed 5 M for NO and this gave me a lot of mana and I don’t understand why. The M is already in my account. Any idea why?
@MindBenderMads buying NO is the same thing as selling YES when you already have a position. Manifold converts the buy to a sell automatically - it’s not possible to hold both YES and NO shares simultaneously in the same market
Since the market is at 98%, five no shares is worth a lot of of yes shares
@MindBenderMads it’s a good thing you shouldn’t be afraid of it! Your situation right now is mathematically equivalent to a situation where you hold both yes and no shares, but instead you have more mana freed up to bet on other markets with.
@MindBenderMads another explanation is that 1 yes share + 1 no share = 1 mana. One of the shares will be worth nothing while the other will be worth its full value which is 1 mana. The percentage only affects how many shares you can buy with the same amount of mana.
If this happens tomorrow (Tuesday) as the article claims (and the episode was taped after Sep 17), seems like this is a YES! I'll wait until then to resolve. The article mentions some uncertainty to Nexstar and Sinclair running it, but that won't impact the resolution as long as it's on air somewhere.
Celebrity Family feud rerun on Thursday crushed Kimmel numbers. Over 3 million total viewers and 546k in the key demo. almost triple total viewers and quadruple on key demo. Friday Preliminary adults 18-49 whispers from insider chatter suggest a softer landing than Thursday's 3.03M/0.4 potentially in the 2.2-2.5M total viewers range with a 0.3 demo, impacted by college football bleed on ESPN/ABC affiliates and the post-Thursday fatigue in late-night tune-in. Averaging over 0.25 demo would make it financial insane to go back to scripted late night. Kimmel shows lose about $250k each due to $100M cost for a season of 200 shows and losing about $50 million. CFF rerun only costs $20K per show as costs paid in original run. Tripling key demo means a lot more ad dollars. Nexstar and Sinclair with stations (66 of 226 affiliates) in Texas and other red states now know for sure they will make a lot more money with different programming.
@brianwang I'm so sorry I didn't see your comment earlier. Would have loaded up on YES with all my mana.
You are that good when it comes to politics.
@brianwang WNBA is the best sport for real men to watch. If you have no reaction when seeing Sophie Cunningham, you have no right to call yourself a red-blooded American patriot because you're either gay or are afraid of tall women.
@MaxA It could also be safety fears after someone who might have been pro-Kimmel shot up an ABC local station and the boycott threats and protests. Released by California authorities before being picked up charged by FBI with federal charges.