Please only add answers that are likely be resolvable by the end of the day GPT-5 is released.
Add anything that you think would be:
Fun to predict, might or might not happen
Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)
I'll resolve everything I can. But any mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.
Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities.
1,000@EricNeyman The spirit of the market is that the questions should be resolvable by the end of the day when GPT-5 is released. If Epoch assesses anything by the end of the day (which seems unlikely, they took a while to officially calculate the score, e.g., for Grok 4), we should of course, prefer Epoch, otherwise we have to take OpenAI at their word.