The Keynesian Beauty Contest is a game theory experiment where a group of players are asked to guess a number between 0 and 100.. The winner of the contest is the player(s) who guess closest to half the average of all the guesses.

In this version, the options increase exponentially up to more than a million. I believe this will make the market significantly more dynamic, and greatly increase the incentive to "fight" over the final resolution.

I've also made the market only 2 weeks long, since so much mana ends up locked up.

This is an attempt to perform this experiment on Manifold, but using continuous averaging of options. At close I will resolve the market to a linear weighting of the options above and below half the average of the unrounded probability weighted value of the options OVER TIME.

For example, if all options are bid down to 0% except 32 and 64, and 32 stays at 30% the whole time, and 64 stays at 70%, the final result is (32*.3 + 64*.7) / 2 = 54.4 / 2 = 27.2, which would mean this market would resolve to 30% 16, 70% 32.

Obscenely unnecessary? Wildly overcomplicated? We're all nerds here, deal with it.

UPDATE

First version of the code: https://pastebin.com/R8FXseEG

Go search for bugs: /DanMan314/will-someone-find-a-bug-in-the-firs ‌

This may not be the final version I use to resolve the market. I'll re-run it when I feel like it, and post the output - I'm not holding myself to any particular schedule.

Changelog:

• Updated to account for linear weighting of non-adjacent options

Output 12/14 10:50AM PST

Total Bets: 27323
Current Weighted Sum: 33146.69254685717

Time Weighted Sum: 31718.00963213971
Final Answer: 15859.004816069855
Resolution: 6% 8192, 94% 16384