ONE MORE TIME! In this version, the options increase and decrease exponentially to +/- 1024. We're still aiming for a version of this market that doesn't easily converge! I believe the issue with the last market was that the space between the options increased as well as the options themselves. In this one, the space around 0 has the tightest spread between the options, so rapid swings are possible.
The Keynesian Beauty Contest is a game theory experiment where a group of players are asked to guess a number between 0 and 100.. The winner of the contest is the player(s) who guess closest to half the average of all the guesses.
I've made the market only 2 weeks long, since so much mana ends up locked up.
This is an attempt to perform this experiment on Manifold, but using continuous averaging of options. At close I will resolve the market to a linear weighting of the options above and below half the average of the unrounded probability weighted value of the options OVER TIME.
For example, if all options are bid down to 0% except 32 and 64, and 32 stays at 30% the whole time, and 64 stays at 70%, the final result is (32*.3 + 64*.7) / 2 = 54.4 / 2 = 27.2, which would mean this market would resolve to 30% 16, 70% 32.
Obscenely grotesquely unnecessary? Wildly and willfully overcomplicated? We're all nerds here, deal with it.
First version of the code: https://pastebin.com/Q13ipby3
Go search for bugs: /DanMan314/will-someone-find-a-bug-in-the-firs-a17296f9b1a7
This may not be the final version I use to resolve the market. I'll re-run it when I feel like it, and post the output - I'm not holding myself to any particular schedule.
Changelog:
Initialize lower bound in search to -9999999... instead of 0
Automatically generate the output time thing I've been manually updating
Output 12/29 10:47PM PST
Total Bets: 32851
Current Weighted Sum: 1.453527962482669
Time Weighted Sum: 2.069811315180322
Final Answer: 1.034905657590161
Resolution: 97% 1, 3% 2
1,000
3.00@traders, check out the latest version of this market, optimized for maximum chaos: /DanMan314/centered-exponential-unlinked-time
FINAL OUTPUT:
Output 12/30 12:02AM PST
Total Bets: 32944
Current Weighted Sum: 1.3153597051219896
Time Weighted Sum: 2.075246903954071
Final Answer: 1.0376234519770355
Resolution: 96% 1, 4% 2
Glad we managed to not converge until late in the game this time! Thanks again for playing everyone. I'm out of interesting new ideas and this was in my book a good success to end the year on, so I don't have a followup market this time. Would love to see others play with the idea though!
@DanMan314 Thank you for running this market. But wow were all of my "strategies" awful. To everyone who won: you're welcome for all the Ṁ.
@Simon74fe Oh great point, I intended to make the close date 2 weeks from now, which is Dec 29. Updated, hopefully no one has big objections.
@Loppukilpailija I'll be very disappointed if this converges to >50% 0 quickly and stays there. 1% of 1024 is >10! It feels very easy to drag the average away this time, I'm really hoping we get some action.
@Loppukilpailija I was overconfident in betting it up to 50%. I do think it will end close to 0, but considering where it is now I certainly paid too much for my bets ;(