We're still aiming for a version of this market that doesn't easily converge! I believe the issue with the last market was that the space between the options increased as well as the options themselves. In this one, the space around 0 has the tightest spread between the options, so rapid swings are possible.

The Keynesian Beauty Contest is a game theory experiment where a group of players are asked to guess a number between 0 and 100.. The winner of the contest is the player(s) who guess closest to 

I've made the market only 2 weeks long, since so much mana ends up locked up.

This is an attempt to perform this experiment on Manifold, 

but using continuous averaging of options

a linear weighting of the options above and below half the average of the unrounded probability weighted value of the options 

For example, if all options are bid down to 0% except 32 and 64, and 32 stays at 30% the whole time, and 64 stays at 70%, the final result is (32*.3 + 64*.7) / 2 = 54.4 / 2 = 27.2, which would mean this market would resolve to 30% 16, 70% 32.

Obscenely grotesquely unnecessary? Wildly and willfully overcomplicated? We're all nerds here, deal with it.

This may not be the final version I use to resolve the market. I'll re-run it when I feel like it, and post the output - I'm not holding myself to any particular schedule.

Output 12/29 10:47PM PST

Total Bets: 32851
Current Weighted Sum: 1.453527962482669

Time Weighted Sum: 2.069811315180322
Final Answer: 1.034905657590161
Resolution: 97% 1, 3% 2