Would you flip a coin for 50% instant death, 50% the best possible life with as many resources as you like?
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Results

Taken from Zvi's poll on X

The results were surprising.

I also decided to write up my thoughts about this on my substack:

https://substack.com/home/post/p-159016940

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I would do instantly, that's the fairest bet you'll ever get, a similar EV bet in real life requires you to already be rich

Reading your post, it feels like you’re overcomplicating things. I wouldn’t flip the coin simply because there are a lot of people who either depend on or care about me who would be very sad if I died.

@GleamingRhino True, the argument against that would be imagine how much better you could make their lives. But now we are in territory where you are deciding how much risk to take on someone else's behalf compared to taking on a risk that would only affect yourself. I definitely think I should not be making that decision on another's behalf so this definitely updates me to not flipping.

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