Would you flip a coin for 50% instant death, 50% the best possible life with as many resources as you like?
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Results

Taken from Zvi's poll on X

The results were surprising.

I also decided to write up my thoughts about this on my substack:

https://substack.com/home/post/p-159016940

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@geuber your random number is: 2

Salt: 663gc49154i, round: 5417944 (signature a758ab1c653ab79d130dc12493d1f52803e106aadf360ae822e2bd39eb7d470e4a54d6960f5de3159e6881ef4f04c868105f62d06433f7d526a80116b65bfb543d52db445642ad3b6a782cfa01735da1530956ecae810a09f17c3528703b92f8)

@FairlyRandom maybe I would flip it…

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@geuber you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5417942 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5417944, salt: 663gc49154i.

I swear.

@FairlyRandom max=2

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Not a valid request: Range is ambiguous. Please include only a single number, or explicitly state max=N

@FairlyRandom I can’t even do this right… max=2

My luck simply does not allow me to be trying these things… Actually I kinda want to try something: (1 - death, 2 - the other one)

@FairlyRandom 2

This is a great poll and your piece on it was good, it's unfortunate so few people read it. I would be interest in reading more of your articles.

@Velaris thanks! Been busy lately, but hope to keep writing here and there.

Answered no, but (assuming I don't have to make a decision on the spot) it would be a discussion with my partner. At other times in my life, this might have been (and might again be) a yes.

"as many resources as I want" could be used to solve all the problems in the world, therefore the only reasonable answer is yes.

I would do instantly, that's the fairest bet you'll ever get, a similar EV bet in real life requires you to already be rich

Reading your post, it feels like you’re overcomplicating things. I wouldn’t flip the coin simply because there are a lot of people who either depend on or care about me who would be very sad if I died.

@GleamingRhino True, the argument against that would be imagine how much better you could make their lives. But now we are in territory where you are deciding how much risk to take on someone else's behalf compared to taking on a risk that would only affect yourself. I definitely think I should not be making that decision on another's behalf so this definitely updates me to not flipping.

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