Will Putin imply he was directly responsible for the Prigozhin plane crash?
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resolved Jan 14
Resolved
NO

This refers to the plane that crashed today regardless of whether Prigozhin was actually on it or not.

If Putin or a spokesperson on his behalf takes credit or claims he was directly responsible this will resolve yes.

If he implies it was an eg. "unfortunate accident by the Russian military" then this will resolve NO.

If he doesn't make any statement that fulfils either resolution criteria by close date (end of 2023) then this will resolve NO.


In a case where he ambiguously implies he was responsible, but leaves it somewhat open-ended, I will close the market and conduct a poll in our discord that our Trustworthyish users can vote on to determine the resolution. I may re-open the market to trading if they think the statement wasn't strong enough to resolve one way or the other.

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bought Ṁ51 of NO

More reporting about this from the WSJ, linked here by Russian media:

Western intelligence agencies cited by WSJ said Patrushev started designing a plan to dispose of Prigozhin in August. Putin did not object when he was shown the proposal, the newspaper said.

Putin is being portrayed not as the instigator of the murder, but as someone who didn’t object to it. Far from “directly responsible” by any measures.

predicted NO

If he implies it was an eg. "unfortunate accident by the Russian military" then this will resolve NO.

This has happen as far as I can tell.

I think there's still chance that he may say something new, that would satisfy the YES case, but shouldn't this resolve to NO already because conditions for NO are met?

He's apparently called the guys family and offered condolences. That's cold. Doubt he's going to admit he killed him.

bought Ṁ500 of NO

❗️Putin at a meeting with Denis Pushilin indirectly confirmed the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin:

“Prigozhin was a man of difficult fate, but a talented businessman. "Wagner" made a significant contribution to the fight against Nazism in Ukraine, we will never forget.

(...) As for this aviation accident, first of all I want to express my sincere condolences to the families of all the victims, it is always a tragedy.”

Source also has video of Putin saying it.

So he pretty much says that he is greatly saddened by sudden death of this great hero. Which means that he denies that he ever wanted Prigozhin's death and claims that it was an aviation accident. I'd say that it's pretty clear what Putin's narrative is from now on.

https://t.me/sotaproject/65077

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Their "training exercise in Ukraine" has been going for quite a while. If they say anything, it'll be a similarly "obvious" euphemism that won't be sufficient for resolution.

@Mira The best training is hands-on experience after all.

Perhaps shooting down this plane was also just training in case they would ever need to shoot down planes against the USA.

@Mira I thought they call it "a special operation"

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