What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected
39
126
1k
Jun 1
4%
Israel/Hamas Ceasefire
0.2%
Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire
49%
Trump Re-elected
47%
Biden Re-elected

What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected

This market only resolves 1 answer

Resolves YES To The Event That Occurs First

  • To Meet Re-Election:

    • Biden must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.

    • Trump must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.

  • To Meet Bilateral Ceasefire:

    • Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas or Russia & Ukraine

    • Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days

    • Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities

    • Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.

  • MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET


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Trump should be more likely to be elected conditional on no ceasefire occurring, as this means protests and possible social unrest lasts until the election, as well as Jews and Arabs supporting Trump more.

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