What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected
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Aug 1
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Netanyahu authorizes negotiators to enter detailed talks for ceasefire deal with Hamas
Biden says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire framework President Biden put out a statement saying Israel and Hamas had agreed to a cease-fire framework but admitted "there is still work to do." NBC News' Josh Lederman has details on the proposed framework and ongoing conflict. @traders
Hamas leader claims Israel trying to avert ceasefire via ‘heinous massacres’ in Gaza
Trump says he was shot in the ear during rally; one attendee and shooter are dead  
Florida judge dismisses the Trump classified documents case Judge Aileen Cannon handed down her decision on Monday in a big win for the former president. The Florida judge overseeing former President Donald Trump's classified documents case dismissed the indictment against him.
@traders Hamas denies it has withdrawn from hostage-truce talks after latest Israeli attacks
Trump selects Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate [image]
IDF reveals most of Hamas in Shejaia gone, families release new hostage photos
House Democrats circulate letter urging DNC not to rush Biden nomination House Democrats are circulating a drafted letter urging the Democratic National Committee to slow down the nomination process for President Joe Biden, which could begin as soon as Sunday. As of Tuesday, at least 19 Capitol Hill Democrats had come out publicly to urge Biden to bow out of the race, following his debate fumble against Donald Trump in June. Biden’s mission to rescue his campaign with a flood of public appearances is competing with the turbocharged energy of the Republican National Convention, days after the attempted Trump assassination.
@traders 2/3rds 👀 [image]Comment from @Predictor on the "Premium" market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n)
Biden Has Covid [image]
Jeffrey Katzenberg Tells Joe Biden That Donor Cash Is Drying Up As Concerns About POTUS’ Age Grow
Biden Drops Out. [tweet]
48%
Israel/Hamas Ceasefire
4%
Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire
47%
Trump Re-elected
1.4%
Biden Re-elected

What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected

This market only resolves 1 answer

Resolves YES To The Event That Occurs First

  • To Meet Re-Election:

    • Biden must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.

    • Trump must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.

  • To Meet Bilateral Ceasefire:

    • Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas or Russia & Ukraine

    • Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days

    • Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities

    • Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.

  • MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET


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reposted

Biden Drops Out.

To clarify, the presidential results would very likely resolve on January 20th, since that's the inauguration date?

Someone must have hacked my account and put 10K into this because I don't remember this. But regardless I don't mind, since it's the right answer.

reposted

Biden Has Covid

Biden Re-elected

@traders 2/3rds 👀

Comment from @Predictor on the "Premium" market:

reposted

House Democrats circulate letter urging DNC not to rush Biden nomination

  • House Democrats are circulating a drafted letter urging the Democratic National Committee to slow down the nomination process for President Joe Biden, which could begin as soon as Sunday.

  • As of Tuesday, at least 19 Capitol Hill Democrats had come out publicly to urge Biden to bow out of the race, following his debate fumble against Donald Trump in June.

  • Biden’s mission to rescue his campaign with a flood of public appearances is competing with the turbocharged energy of the Republican National Convention, days after the attempted Trump assassination.

Trump selects Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate


reposted

Florida judge dismisses the Trump classified documents case

Judge Aileen Cannon handed down her decision on Monday in a big win for the former president.

The Florida judge overseeing former President Donald Trump's classified documents case dismissed the indictment against him.

oh! sorry about that – I just assumed it was fine but should have probably asked first

reposted

Biden says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire framework

President Biden put out a statement saying Israel and Hamas had agreed to a cease-fire framework but admitted "there is still work to do." NBC News' Josh Lederman has details on the proposed framework and ongoing conflict.
@traders

Sure wish this was a Prize Market

reposted

@traders How is Biden Higher than Trump?

Good question

bought Ṁ150 Israel/Hamas Ceasefire NO

I'll be back...

bought Ṁ100 Biden Re-elected YES

Thank for the headsup

reposted