Will Manifold have an anime girl mascot by April 1, 2023
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resolved Apr 1
Resolved
YES

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predicted NO

Sigh. Well, if it must be, then at least I can suggest...

predicted NO

Ouch.

I AM ALIVE

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Sinclair my fave of these is

predicted NO

@ManifoldMarkets Is this actually a permanent change, or is this strictly an April Fool's Day thing?

It's not my market, but unless this mascot is a permanent change, this doesn't seem like it should qualify for YES, since otherwise Manifold doesn't actually have it as a mascot, it's just a hoax.

predicted NO

Also, this question was addressed in the comments prior to resolution, but you chose not to chime in, even though you apparently had already made up your mind about how it would factor into your decision, which seems like poor form. No opportunity was given for NO bettors to weigh in before a controversial decision was made.

predicted NO

Well, I see that while the other April Fool’s changes have been reverted, the profile pic for the official Manifold Account still shows the new image, so it looks like it may be a permanent change.

It does still seem like a big stretch to call that a mascot though. A mascot usually has more than just a single image. Typically they have a name, persona, are used in ads, etc.

predicted NO

It changed back, so it looks like it was not permanent after all.

@JimHays Mana-chan will return, some day

predicted NO

@Sinclair I agree with @JimHays wholeheartedly. It's quite clear that the mascot of Manifold is not an anime girl.

bought Ṁ61 of NO

Given https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-manifold-do-something-for-apri and that this market closes by Apr 2, I decided that buying NO is not very wise.

predicted NO

@ValeryCherepanov I don’t think “pretends to have for April fools” qualifies “has”.

sold Ṁ16 of YES

@JimHays hmm good point

predicted YES

@JimHays Sure it does. For one day.

cute girl who is a transformer that turns into a paper crane

cursed

predicted YES
predicted NO
Anime girl orbited by crystal balls displaying futures scenes
predicted NO
Anime girl surrounded crystal balls containing different futures
predicted NO
Anime magic girl in front of computers displaying charts and graphs.
predicted NO
Anime witch looking into crystal ball

The cover image seems pretty good

Indigo hair and eyes, classy black dress, flipping off the camera, in front of a pointless gradient background.
Truly captures the spirit of manifold

bought Ṁ10 of YES

do iiiiit