Will I learn of any new sexual assaults in Genesis House this year?
23
14
แน3.6Kแน561
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
I am not claiming this is likely or unlikely. I am not claiming anything has or hasn't happened. I know nothing but rumors several degrees removed, but I have friends who are planning on living there and as an outsider I can't really tell whether to warn or encourage them. My hope with this market is that the price signal can provide a trustless, accountable, and anonymous-if-you-want way for the new people who run the house to signal safety or for past victims (if any) to signal danger. I hope this will make it easier for them to find tenants if they deserve it, and harder if they don't. I'm not trying to cancel anyone, I just want people to know the true probability and make their own decisions according to their risk tolerance.
If a victim or a third party I trust messages me, and their case is convincing, I'll immediately resolve this to YES, with no public explanation if they want me to keep it a secret.
I'm fine with anonymous messages (https://www.admonymous.co/si) but I'll be less certain about their content.
If I am uncertain or if the case is only sorta assault, I'll resolve this PROB at the end of the year according to my judgement.
This question only asks about assaults that occur between this question's create date and Jan 1, 2023.
I'd love to change the resolution criteria to something more reliable, if I hear any good suggestions.
I strongly recommend that if you have relevant info but you wish to remain anonymous, to bet on this market using a new google account. Transactions aren't truly private in the API.
I'm willing to entertain arguments that I should take this market down by resolving N/A immediately. I don't want this market to make people's lives worse somehow.
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