Will weight-loss drugs power a 1% annual growth increase in US GDP?
16
66
400
2031
20%
chance

Barron's claims that:

"If 60 million Americans got the weight-loss drugs and 90% of them benefited, that could translate to over a 1% boost to U.S. GDP from the bigger labor force and higher productivity"

Reference:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-ozempic-could-power-the-nations-gdp-234b346e

This market turns true if by 2030:

  • It's been empirically proven that the impact of obesity drug has led to at least 1% yearly GDP growth improvement in the USA, or

  • 60 million Americans got the weight-loss in 2030, AND expert consensus seems to validate this growth claim. [In case of uncertain outcome, we may validate it through a manifold poll]

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More weightloss -> people live longer -> Medicare/Social Security has to pay out for longer -> higher taxes -> lower productivity. Same thing with smoking - all the bans and restrictions on smokers likely harmed US GDP in the long run.

What portion of the GDP is related to the food chain, restaurants, etc.? If 60 million people had this drug, surely those would all take a hit? That's a lot of people walking around NOT thinking about eating more food.

@Eliza difficult to measure...

Interesting question! I think no, but not 100% sure. It seems like the sort of thing that if they had been introduced in the 90s we would have seen a 1% boost by now, but have some doubts about this occurring through 2030

@RemNi as far as I understand it's talking about a 1% YEARLY growth increase

@SimoneRomeo isn't it 1% compared to where they would be without the treatment?

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The hypothesis seems plausible, but having strong evidence for it sounds hard (I'm not optimistic about GDP in general over the next decade)

@Retr0id that's why I included the second point, if we reach 60m yearly users and evidence points in the right direction it should be ok, or at least enough to have a poll on it

@SimoneRomeo sure, I'm predicting that even if it comes down to a poll, it may be difficult to convince poll participants of the correlation - could go either way of course, hence my small bet :)

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