Could you provide a hash of "the closing date + some additional text", so it cannot easily be reverse engineered?

https://emn178.github.io/online-tools/sha256.html

@4fa what? I don't understand your request

@SimoneRomeo It's a way to later prove that you really have already secretly decided which day without revealing the random/unknown day. But I guess such proof is not that important if you don't bet on the market yourself.

@4fa yeah, i won't bet. I have just marked the date on my calendar to remind me to resolve 😂

How do you spell whale sounds with ASCII characters?

@tobiasscheuer not sure about ASCII but in Unicode you can use IPA tone markers:

˩˩˨˨˧˧˦˦˥˥˦˦˧˧˨˨˩˩˨˨˧˧˦˦˥˥˦˦˧˧˨˨˩˩

My assumptions will be proved true if:

• The percentage of each option will be similar

• There won't be much volatility in the market

• Volatility will decrease with time (instead than increasing)

Suggested additional requirement that one of the options has an objectively verifiable truth value and probability (e.g. fairlyrandom 60-40 coin flip) and the market continues to remain near the hypothetical true odds that would apply if it were to be genuinely tested

@TheAllMemeingEye I dont know what the true value should be so I would abstain from mentioning such requirement for my prediction: it could be same as coin flip if it acts as a random market but if it acts as a poll - as I wish it does - the probability should be different.

@SimoneRomeo what do you mean precisely by acting as a poll? With a poll, one is counting the number of people who choose each option, with a market one is calculating the probability of an outcome from people's bets that are incentivised to align with their estimates of the probability

@TheAllMemeingEye you're right, it won't be like a poll. Maybe a voting system can be the right word? Meaning that betting on the market is like voting on what should be the right resolution

Will wales make these markets unfair?

What did the welsh do to deserve this haha

@TheAllMemeingEye 😂😂 I corrected the spelling mistake: Wales > whales