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MANIFOLD
Will this market have ten or more unique predictors?
13
Ṁ290Ṁ999
resolved Apr 11
Resolved
YES

Will ten or more people put in a prediction on this market?

Bots don't count towards the total. If I predict, I do count.

I may close this market early if the answer is YES but I won't extend the close date if the answer is NO.

This is the latest version of this market - each time the target increases by one so it should be a bit less of a certain thing. Here's how the previous markets went:

Will this market have six or more unique predictors? This one was trivially easy and the target was hit by people predicting YES in 7 minutes

Will this market have seven or more unique predictors? Quite a big difference from before, this one took 1 hour 37 minutes to hit the target

Will this market have eight or more unique predictors? Hit the target in 2 hours 12 minutes, but still only with people predicting YES

Will this market have nine or more unique predictors? This was the first version of the market with some NO bets and some sharp market moves! It took 12 hours and 8 minutes to hit the target, but a chunk of that was overnight for some of the most active markets.

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That was surprisingly quick since the previous iteration of the market took over 12 hours to hit nine unique predictors!

The next iteration of the market is here:

@SimonGrayson when you commented this new market on this market, most people who have invested on this market got a notification about your comment and you'll likely see a repeat of a large number of the same traders, making it easier

@firstuserhere Ah, that's interesting!