Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 16th August be below 7%?

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resolved Aug 16

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YES

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The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 BST on Wednesday 16th August.

This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.

Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):

January 2023 - 10.5%

February 2023 - 10.1%

March 2023 - 10.4%

April 2023 - 10.1%

May 2023 - 8.7%

June 2023 - 8.7%

July 2023 - 7.9%

August 2023 - TBC

(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 7.0%)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom decreased to 6.80 percent in July from 7.90 percent in June of 2023

Reuters econ poll suggests 6.7%, given the BoE usually overstates their predictions this has me thinking that YES will happen.

predictedYES

@Noit Today’s wage growth numbers were healthier than expected (7.8% including bonuses, 8.2% excluding them).

The optimistic view is that a good drop in inflation would see real term wage growth for the first time in ages.

The pessimistic view is that if wage growth came in so much higher than expected, CPI inflation might come in higher as well…

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