Following some limited Thursday previews, Taylor Swift's Eras tour has opened in cinemas across the US and multiple other countries today.
Cinematic releases of music concerts have never seen enormous box office success - as far as I can tell the record holder is Justin Bieber's Never Say Never from 2011. It grossed $99 million, which represents an enormous return on investment but put it well outside the top 50 highest grossing films of the year.
But with the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes leaving cinemas short of any big blockbusters, this might be the perfect time for the Taylor Swift juggernaught to blow those records away!
Will the overall worldwide gross surpass the figures listed here?
Resolution notes
The options in this market are independent of one another. So if the film grosses $450 million, the options for $300 million and $400 million will both resolve at 100% and the option for $500 million will resolve at 0%
I will consider 31st March 2024 to be the cutoff for these markets. It's pretty unlikely that this release will stay in cinemas for anywhere near that long, and any re-release after that date won't count for this market
BoxOffficeMojo will be used as the source of truth for this market - whatever they define as this film's gross will be how the market is resovled. Unless there is an obvious mistake or typo that is about to be corrected, whatever BOM says goes!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,579 | |
| 2 | Ṁ114 | |
| 3 | Ṁ68 | |
| 4 | Ṁ59 | |
| 5 | Ṁ32 |
@Domer It hasn't released in China yet (& IIRC that's scheduled soon), not sure if there are other foreign markets of reasonable size (and I wouldn't be surprised if it popped back into domestic theaters sometime in the next few months).
I don't see any reason to think it'll reach 300 mil, but it's not trivially closed.
India numbers aren't added to BOM yet, and a future China release hasn't been confirmed or denied, so I'm bullish. Some folks will watch it with their cousins over Thanksgiving, and a couple smaller markets also aren't added to BOM yet.
@IonMarqvardsen Then anyone betting NO on any of the options wins!
The markets are effectively each their own binary. If you’ve bet that it won’t make over 300 million and it makes 250 million, you win. If you’ve bet it won’t make over 400 million and it makes 250 million you also win!