Nate Silver has left 538 but he continues to maintain his Presidential election model which attempts to put a figure on how likely each of the candidates are to win the electoral college and therefore win the election.

Trump was leading Biden by a wide margin but the first model to measure him against Harris gave her the lead. This led me to ask when Trump would overtake Harris:

/SimonGrayson/when-will-trump-overtake-harris-in

Earlier today, Trump overtook Harris off the back of some strong polls in Pennsylvania.

Will Harris take the lead back in the next week (by the time this market closes in exactly a week)?

Or will Trump maintain his lead for the whole week?

Resolution notes:

• The primary source of truth for this market is Nate Silver's blog. Some of his content is subscriber-only, but the results of the model can usually be found in other media outlets including Nate Silver's own Twitter feed.

• This market only references Silver's model for winning the electoral collage (ie. winning the election) rather than winning the popular vote or getting ahead in the polling average

• If Nate Silver stops publishing a Harris vs Trump model for any reason (including one of the candidates withdrawing) before Harris has overtaken Trump and does not bring it back online by the time this market closes, this market will resolve to NO.