Will Dominic Cummings's new political party have any success in the 2024 UK general election?
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1kṀ19kresolved Jun 7
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There has been plenty of media coverage of Dominic Cummings's plan to start a new political party:
Will he set up this party? Will they get any votes in the next general election?
The market will resolve to YES if his new party manages any of the following in the 2024 general election:
They win 2% or more of the vote
They win 2 or more MPs
They come second (or even first) in at least 10 seats
They win 10% or more of the vote in at least 20 seats
If Cummings gets involved in an existing established party such as Reform UK, that will not count. If he gets involved with a minor party (which has not yet polled at 2% or higher in any UK poll at the time of this market creation) and they achieve the results above, that will count.
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