Will Dominic Cummings's new political party have any success in the 2024 UK general election?
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resolved Jun 7
Resolved
NO

There has been plenty of media coverage of Dominic Cummings's plan to start a new political party:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/09/dominic-cummings-unveils-plans-for-new-party-replace-tories/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/09/dominic-cummings-unveils-plans-for-new-party-replace-tories/

Will he set up this party? Will they get any votes in the next general election?

The market will resolve to YES if his new party manages any of the following in the 2024 general election:

  • They win 2% or more of the vote

  • They win 2 or more MPs

  • They come second (or even first) in at least 10 seats

  • They win 10% or more of the vote in at least 20 seats

If Cummings gets involved in an existing established party such as Reform UK, that will not count. If he gets involved with a minor party (which has not yet polled at 2% or higher in any UK poll at the time of this market creation) and they achieve the results above, that will count.

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There is no Cummings Party.

This resolves to NO.

@SimonGrayson from the wolf's mouth:

Next week I’ll publish here next steps on The Startup Party, or, rather, the precursor steps for such a Party.

https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-viii-cia-counterintelligen

Should have something about him? Not sure how relevant Dominic still is, but he's still landing in my RSS feed.

@traders Registration for candidates closes on 4th June. If there is no indication by the end of that week that Dominic Cummings is setting up a new party or getting involved in a minor existing party within a day or two of registration closing I will resolve this to NO.

@SimonGrayson Correction - registrations close on the 7th rather than the 4th.

I think this is a pretty certain conclusion, but I'll wait until registration has formally closed!

bought Ṁ500 NO

@SimonGrayson I think registration closed at 4 today. I'll admit I haven't checked each constituency but given the lack of news, I think it's safe to resolve NO now

bought Ṁ500 NO

maybe Dominic will see how bad the odds are here and he’ll buy the market up

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