As a reaction to recent chagnes made by Reddit, a large number of subreddits "went dark" by either going entirely private or by going read-only and stopping people from posting new content.
Almost 9,000 subreddits went dark on 12th June and we've slowly been seeing some of them return over the past 8 days, either because they wanted to bring their subreddit back or becuase Reddit's admins threatened to kick out their moderators if they didn't come back online.
This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "2763/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 31.3%. If this figure ticks below 25%, the market resolves to YES.
The deadline is Friday at 22:00 UK time (the closing time of the market).
Previous markets tracking the progress:
/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida
/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits
(With thanks to @MP who came up with the idea and created the first two markets here)
The next iteration of the market (now with a longer deadline since things seem to be slowing down):
Resolution notes:
If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.
1,000
3.00Tangential, but does anyone know how to add in-line market links to a description? i.e the Will the subreddits return by friday? NO line under "Previous markets tracking the progress"
@NoyaV If you type a percentage sign, you'll see a dropdown of markets. You can start typing the market name and then select the market from the dropdown.
It's a slightly odd interface because it does a search for relevant markets rather than matching the name exactly - so to include that one I started typing "reddit dark" rather than the actual name of the market!
I really like it when the markets are still open because it shows a live percentage rather than just the result for closed markets!
Link, BST (UTC+1)
* Omitted. The next per hour change is from the count before *.
6/20 00:50 3460 / 8829 39.19%
6/20 02:45 3440 / 8829 38.96% -10.4347826 / hour
6/20 03:05 3435 / 8829 38.91% *
6/20 03:25 3432 / 8829 38.87% *
6/20 09:50 3412 / 8829 38.65% -3.952941 / hour
6/20 16:45 3360 / 8829 38.06% -7.518 / hour
6/20 19:20 3315 / 8829 37.55% -17.4193548387 / hour
6/20 21:10 3289 / 8829 37.25% -14.181818 / hour
6/21 01:50 3222 / 8829 36.49% -14.3571428571428 / hour
6/21 08:30 3138 / 8829 35.54% -12.6 / hour
6/21 20:30 2939 / 8829 33.29% -16.58333 / hour
6/22 00:30 2859 / 8829 32.38% -20 / hour
6/22 03:15 2805 / 8829 31.77% -19.6363636363636 / hour
6/22 07:15 2761 / 8829 31.27% -11 / hour
6/22 12:15 2723 / 8829 30.84% -7.6 / hour
6/22 17:15 2684 / 8829 30.4% -7.8 / hour
6/22 21:00 2638 / 8829 29.88% -12.2666 / hour
6/22 22:00 2644 / 8829 29.95% +6 / hour
6/23 06:50 2590 / 8829 29.34% -6.1132 / hour
6/23 10:15 2582 / 8829 29.24% -2.3414634146 / hour
6/23 15:40 2578 / 8829 29.2% -0.7384615384615 / hour
6/23 19:50 2562 / 8829 29.02% -3.84 / hour
6/23 22:00 2559 / 8829 28.98% -1.38461538461538 / hour
19:50
-9.868131868131 / hour on average. 2540.619047619047 (28.775842%) expected.
-4.58934169278997 / hour in last 26.5 hours. 2552 (28.9%) expected.