With four weeks to go until the first debate, the field for the 2024 Republican primaries is getting a bit crowded.
There are 11 major candidates according to the criterea set out by FiveThirtyEight for inclusion in their poll tracker:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
Which of these will be the first to drop out of the race?
Resolution crieterea:
I will resolve this market to the relevant candidate when trustworthy news sources such as the BBC and the Guardian are reporting that a candidate has withdrawn from the primaries and suspended their campaign.
If there is ambiguity as to which of the candidates has withdrawn first (eg. two candidates both say that they are dropping out of the race after the Iowa primaries and the media are not clear on which of them has technically suspended their campaign first), the market will resolve equally to those candidates who are dropping out at the same time
1,000
3.00https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/29/miami-mayor-francis-suarez-suspends-presidential-campaign.html Suarez has dropped out, ple
ase r
esolve.