Nate Silver has left 538 but he continues to maintain his Presidential election model which attempts to put a figure on how likely each of the candidates are to win the electoral college and therefore win the election. The model is here (the actual model itself is only visible to subscribers, but the commentary is above the paywall):
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Trump was leading Biden by a wide margin but the first model to measure him against Harris gave her the lead. However, Trump overtook Harris a week ago and has extended his lead over the past few days. At the time of market creation, the model gives the contenders these chances:
Trump - 60.1%
Harris - 39.7%
Will Harris regain the lead in Nate Silver's model? If so, in which month will she first regain the lead?
Resolution notes:
The primary source of truth for this market is Nate Silver's blog. Some of his content is subscriber-only, but the results of the model can usually be found in other media outlets including Nate Silver's own Twitter feed.
This market only references Silver's model for winning the electoral collage (ie. winning the election) rather than winning the popular vote or getting ahead in the polling average
If Nate Silver stops publishing a Harris vs Trump model for any reason (including one of the candidates withdrawing) before Harris has overtaken Trump and does not bring it back online by the time of the election, this market will resolve to the "she will not overtake him" option.
Related market - Silver's old home at 538 gives Harris a 55% chance of victory. Will Trump overtake Harris there? /SimonGrayson/when-will-trump-overtake-harris-in-tq3ucuxus2
1,000
3.00The latest update shows Harris with a 51.1% chance of winning to Donald Trump's 48.6% so this market resolves to SEPTEMBER.
Will Trump regain the lead? Or will Harris reach 60% in the model before that happens?
Yesterday's update saw a small bump for Harris. The latest predictions:
Trump 51.0%
Harris 48.8%
Will she continue this momentum and cross over to become the favourite in the next update?
@traders An update for non-subscribers…
As always, Nate Silver’s commentary that comes with each update is visible for free here but the model itself appears below the paywall fold.
Harris has been recovering slowly and had a slight tick up today.
The latest prediction from the model:
Trump 56.2%
Harris 43.5%
Will that momentum keep going now as the post-debate post-“they’re eating dogs, they’re eating cats” polls come in?
@DavidFWatson Yes. But on the other hand, there could be some last minute swings in the polling and the model will be very sensitive to even some pretty small swings only a couple of days out from the election.