When the next major candidate drop out of the Republican presidential primaries? (Six candidates remaining)
Basic
11
Ṁ16k
resolved Jan 11
Resolved
YES
By 31st January
Resolved
YES
By 29th February
Resolved
YES
By 14th January
Resolved
YES
By 14th February
Resolved
NO
By 31st December
Resolved
NO
By 14th December

There are six major candidates remaining in the race to be the Republican nominee for President (I'm going by FiveThirtyEight's definition of major candidates):

  • Donald Trump

  • Nikki Haley

  • Ron DeSantis

  • Vivek Ramaswamy

  • Chris Christie

  • Asa Hutchinson

When will the next one drop out, leaving us with just five?

This is linked to the market on who the next dropout will be, so you can see more about the rules about what counts as dropping out, etc. here:

/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-major-candidat-c9dc9c2cfcb6

The multiple outcomes on this market aren't linked and the dates are inclusive, so if someone drops out on 14th January, the two December markets will resolve to NO while the 14th January market and all of the later markets will resolve to YES.

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Chris Christie is out, so the remaining markets resolve to YES.

Who will follow Christie out of the door? Bet here:

Resolved 31st December to NO.

Surprisingly little movement in the past three weeks! Let’s see what the Iowa caucus brings…

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