Marjorie Taylor Greene has filed a "Motion to Vacate" - a vote to remove Mike Johnson as Speaker of the US House of Representatives.
By convention, a vote like this is supposed to take priority and take place very quickly after it has been filed, but a Motion to Vacate is so rare that we don't know how closely the House will stick to this convention!
When will the House vote on whether to remove him?
Market notes:
Any vote where Representatives vote YES or NO to removing Mike Johnson will count for the purposes of this market
Any other procedure (eg. unanimous consent, voice vote) to satisfy the motion will also count
If Mike Johnson resigns without the need for a vote, the market will resolve to the day of his resignation
Withdrawal of the Motion to Vacate without the need for a vote will not count
This will be based on Washington DC time - any vote which starts before midnight will resolve to the day before and any vote which starts after midnight will resolve to the following day.
If it looks like this is going to drag out for a while, I will add more dates and anyone who has bet on "other" will receive shares in these additional dates. If it looks like it's been delayed so much that a daily market isn't meaningful, I will create a final "not before X date" option with plenty of notice so that the market can resolve.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ122 | |
| 2 | Ṁ118 | |
| 3 | Ṁ105 | |
| 4 | Ṁ49 | |
| 5 | Ṁ44 |
@JamesF Thanks for the nudge - I thought I had options until the end of this week rather than the end of last week!
I've added an option for 2nd to 8th April (when the House is supposed to be in recess) and for the first days that the House is supposed to be back. If you had previously bet on "other", you will have received shares in all of these options.
I'll wait to see how things are looking next week before deciding whether to start adding more options to the market - but if you bet on "other" then you will get a payout no matter what if there is no vote/resignation before 13th April.
Update - from my understanding, the rule is that anyone filing a Motion to Vacate can file it as a privileged motion meaning that it has to be voted on within 2 sitting days.
However, MTG has apparently not filed the motion as privileged meaning that Johnson doesn’t have to bring the motion to the floor unless he wants to or she changes this.
If my understanding is right and things stay as they are, I’ll add another option for 1st to 8th April and then add more daily options for 9th April onwards (when the House is sitting again). If it doesn’t look like a vote is forthcoming I’ll either add options for weeks/months or add a “not before X date” option depending on which seems more fitting.
Either way, you can bet on any of these options by betting on “other”. Any shares you have in other will transfer to all options that split off from “other”.
@SimonGrayson thanks for clarifying. This is why I bought Other. I just wish I decided to buy more lol
@Joshua Hmm... Looks like I jumped the gun a bit with this market!
I'll wait to see what happens in the next couple of days and then I might add a 1st to 8th April option and some daily options for the rest of that week.
For now, anyone who wants shares in any of those options can bet on Other!