Two floor votes have not been enough to elect a new Speaker of the House - Jim Jordan lost the first vote with 20 Republicans voting against him and the second with 22 voting against him:
/SimonGrayson/how-many-republicans-will-vote-agai
/SimonGrayson/how-many-republicans-will-vote-agai-bbab68d48ffe
So now we go to a third vote. How many Republicans will vote against Jim Jordan in the third round?
Important note - Jordan may or may not be the Republican nominee or he could pull out of the race before the third vote. Even if that happens, this market will still be live and will still resolve to the number of Republicans voting against him.
This is a count of Republican House members who vote for another candidate or who vote "present". Members who are physically absent or who abstain will not be included.
This market applies to the next vote where members of the House vote for named candidates. Any other type of vote (a motion to delay, an up/down vote on any candidate, a vote on whether to vote, etc) will be ignored.
If there is no further Speaker vote until after the next Congressional elections, this market resolves to N/A
1,000
3.0025 votes against - this resolves to 20-29.
This insanity goes to another round. Will that next round be later today? Predict here - /SimonGrayson/speaker-of-the-house-election-how-m-00839dc6a8a8
And bet on how many Republicans will vote against Jim Jordan in the next round here:
About two thirds of the way through the alphabet...
So far all of the Republicans who voted against Jordan in the second round have voted against him again, and there have been three new anti-Jordan votes (Fitzpatrick, Kean, Molinaro).
Unless there's a late flurry of new anti-Jordan converts, it looks like he'll end up with around 25-27 votes against him. So 20-29 is looking good!
@MarkHamill This will resolve to the result of the next floor speaker vote, even if that doesn’t happen until after McHenry has spent a load of time as acting Speaker.
If there’s no Speaker vote before the next elections (that would be the first vote of the next congress rather than the third vote of this Speakership) this market will resolve N/A.