Two weeks ago, Kevin McCarthy was removed as the Speaker of the House. Since then, there has been no Speaker.
Jim Jordan was the Republican nominee in the first ballot, but 20 of his fellow Republicans voted for other candidates:
/SimonGrayson/how-many-republicans-will-vote-agai
This means that he didn't get enough votes to win and there will need to be a second vote.
How many Republicans will vote against Jim Jordan in the second floor vote?
This is a count of Republican House members who vote for another candidate or who vote "present". Members who are physically absent or who abstain will not be included.
This market applies to the next vote where members of the House vote for named candidates. Any other type of vote (a motion to delay, an up/down vote on any candidate, a vote on whether to vote, etc) will be ignored.
If Jim Jordan is not the nominee, this will still be a live market and there will presumably be a LOT of votes against Jordan!
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@SimonGrayson 30-39 was above 20% pretty late in the voting, not sure why. That was about through the voting, and there had only been a couple of flips so far.
@jacksonpolack Looks that way, but I'm going to wait for them to announce the formal result before resolving. I think there's a brief period where members are allowed to change their vote (though that might have been just after the late voters voted) so it's worth waiting 5 mins to be 100% sure!
@SimonGrayson Agreed with both of you. Nothing wrong with waiting a few more minutes just to make sure you get it right.
One of Jordan's strongest backers is publicly predicting that Jim Jordan will lose even more votes than yesterday:
https://twitter.com/RepScottPerry/status/1714648056488984980
That could just be expectation management so that they can trumpet it as a huge success even if Jordan has almost 20 Republicans voting against him...