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This should absolutely not have resolved yet, lol

@benshindel I will personally refund every No holder if the final results are <8

@Simon74fe I was a YES holder, but...

It's over mathematically

@Simon74fe you know the "% of votes in" is a very very rough estimate

@benshindel I did not know that

But can it be so much off to move Harris 5 points up?

@Simon74fe Quite unlikely but certainly stranger things have happened with the NYT "% reporting" feature. It's actually quite difficult to determine the % reporting in some races. In any case, I'd probably say the outcome is def 98% or 99% likely, but I'd take 1 to 1000 odds in a heartbeat, for instance.

thanks for making this! yeah fwiw i would have left mine open for election day trading if it was just mana but because it's sweeps (with 1k in liquidity) i don't think i'm supposed to touch the close date

I made a version of this market too, which is currently at 50%: Will Trump win Florida by at least eight points? | Manifold.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Oh sorry, I didn't see that one

@Simon74fe No problem, the more the merrier! 😂