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MANIFOLD
ULTIMATUM GAME: two random traders negotiate this market's resolution
30
Ṁ10kṀ24k
resolved Sep 9
Resolved
NO

After close, I will randomly select and ping one YES holder and one NO holder (uniform among all accounts holding shares, using @FairlyRandom)

  1. The YES negotiator has 24h to propose a number X (0–100) in a top-level comment (no edits)

  2. The NO negotiator then has 24h to reply "accept" or "reject" to this comment

  3. Accept → market resolves PROB = X and pool is split between both negotiators the same way (YES negotiator gets X, NO negotiator gets 1-X of the pool)

  4. Reject or any missed deadline → market resolves N/A and no pool gets split between negotiators

Pool = Ṁ30 * N_TRADERS (all unique-trader bonuses this market generates)

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Publishing the private side market

/vi/will-the-ultimatum-game-market-reso

@WobertqUIQz after bribing everyone

Just to confirm, I have 24h to respond starting from @windysoup's offer time, right? (I don't plan on using all the time but I don't want to accidentally miss if it's less!)

@retr0id @Simon74fe I offer 0!

@windysoup Offer noted, I will consider it carefully

@Quroe what can I say, negotiations went great. I barely had to participate

@Stralor Negotiation***s***? Isn't that one down one to go?

@retr0id Just noting that you'll get 900 from the pool + 20 + 108 from stake/private market if you accept, and -20-108 if you reject.

@vi Flip the polarity on the 20's. 20 is lost if the market resolves normally, and 20 is refunded if it N/As.

@Quroe Nah it's not completely flipped. He makes 20 from the market if it resolves and is refunded 20 (no gain) on N/A

@windysoup Oh, I see now. I got turned around. 20 mana was paid for 40 NO shares. The fact that the 20 mana down payment is the same as the 20 mana delta to 40 mana for the payout got me.

@windysoup @Simon74fe I accept the offer of 0

@windysoup and @retr0id you are the negotiators, congrats. @windysoup you have 24 hours to post your offer

@Simon74fe Does the offer need some sort of signifier that signals that it is the official offer with no take-backsies? Like, does the comment need to contain the phrase "final offer"?

@Simon74fe Or are many offers allowed, but only the accepted one stands?

@Quroe Good question. I would say anything that is a top level comment and can be read as an offer counts. And only one offer is allowed

@Simon74fe What if it's "I am willing to offer you X%."? Is that the offer?

@Simon74fe to confirm, the pool is 900 mana?

@Quroe Yes that sounds like an offer and would count

@Simon74fe Only top level comments are offers, correct?

Windysoup paid 50 for a 103 position
Retr0id paid 20 for a 40 position

This initially appears to basically leaves 49 (and maybe 50) as the only sensible values where they both make a profit or at least not a loss. Propose higher and it makes sense for retr0id to reject. Proposing lower and it doesn't seem to make sense for windysoup.

However above assumes no bribes from other holders presumably the large holders. @WobertqUIQz has the largest position will he persuade/bribe windysoup to give a low value? The alternative of violet bribing to get a high offer made and accepted may well require both windysoup and retr0id to be bribed?

Is this the reason for the low percentage at the end of trade?

Would it be more fun if trading was re-opened? or if negotiations here were allowed?

@windysoup Yes exactly. Only top level comments, and only if they look like offers

@ChristopherRandles There is an additional pool that they split, so even without bribes there is a lot of room. Pre-negotiations here are allowed, only once an offer has been made it cannot changed