Conditional on any room-temp superconductor being replicated before 2025, will the main LK-99 market resolve YES?
16
326
Ṁ2.3KṀ403
Dec 31
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves N/A if no room-temp, ambient-pressure superconductor is discovered and successfully replicated
Main LK-99 market:
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
[100x Fine] Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?
500
Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?
7% chance
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026?
5% chance
Will a room-temperature superconductor with a similar-but-different composition to LK-99 be discovered by 2025?
5% chance
Will a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor (LK-99, or other) be discovered before 2025?
7% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2025?
8% chance
Will any rigorously proven room temperature superconductors arrive before 2025?
7% chance
Nobel Prize by 2035 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
81% chance