Will GPT-4 be a superhuman coder?
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NO

Be it on APPS (https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.09938) OR on Codeforces (see https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.07814), will GPT-4 (the first released version by OpenAI) be a superhuman coder?

By superhuman, I mean that it beats human best experts (e.g it ranks first on Codeforces competition, or it scores more than 90% in top-1 accuracy on Competition Level problems from APPS).


Close date updated to 2023-04-30 12:59 am

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The GPT-4 report (page 5) says it got a rating of 392 on Codeforces (compared to GPT 3.5 at 260). I don't know exactly what that means but I'm gathering that it's not very impressive?

@Imuli That is in the bottom 5%.

Edit: There have been some questions about how OpenAI conducted the test, because it seems unreasonably low. But disregarding output speed, there is no circumstance under which GPT-4 could be considered a superhuman coder,

Can you add more clarity on what it means to be superhuman? I imagine Codex is already better than most humans at coding because most humans can't code!

predicted NO

@PeterHurford I just added something! Let me know if it's not enough: "By superhuman, I mean that it beats human best experts (e.g it ranks first on Codeforces competition)."!

@SimeonCampos What would be the equivalent for APPS? 100% top-1 accuracy on competition problems?

predicted NO

@PeterHurford Yeah there's no human baseline unfortunately and 100% seems a lot. Maybe >90%? I don't know how good humans would be given the presence of IOI problems, but probably not 100%.

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