Go easy on me this is my first major question
Welcome to a Manifold market designed as a clear and dynamic variation of the classic Monty Hall problem!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
1. Initial Setup: This market begins with 10 distinct coloured doors, listed as your betting options. One of these doors is designated as the 'correct' door, and the remaining 9 are 'wrong' doors.
2. Eliminations (by Market Creator): Starting 2025-06-01, I will periodically eliminate a total of 9 'wrong' doors. Eliminations will not necessarily be daily. Each eliminated door will be resolved 'No'. I know the correct door and will always eliminate a wrong one.
Timing Note: Eliminations will likely occur at a reasonable hour in the UK (my time zone).
All question doors will be resolved by 2025-06-30
3. How to Play: Choose one door as your prediction. You can change your selected door (your 'switch') at any point until final resolution.
4. Market Resolution: The market resolves immediately upon the 9th and final 'wrong' door elimination announcement. The single door not eliminated will then resolve 'Yes'.
Resolution Criteria: The winning option is the coloured door NOT eliminated by the market creator. All other options resolve as incorrect.
5. Market Creator's Stance: I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that this market will be resolved to N/A due to an issue with the market's setup. They plan to restructure and relaunch the market at a later time.
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I am now pondering a strategy of playing one mana on one door, 2 mana on another door as one non winner is revealed and so on, hmm except that by your rules I would have to switch. Does the platform allow you to dictate how people should play? In effect playing only one at a time and not playing NO? Or are you going on a voluntary basis?
@JussiVilleHeiskanen you choose if you switch or not....you don't have to if you're confident on you selection...is it better to stick or switch the choice is yours.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen that's a side affect of trying to replicate a version of the monty hall problem. It may not work but it's worth a try.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Thanks for the input...the aim is to create a choice you have to make after every elimination...Do I keep my choice or do I switch.
@Silverpawn if you haven't played from the start, you can't join in later, or is there any other incentive to play from the start? Hmm just realized you can get a better price early
@JussiVilleHeiskanen unless I've set it up wrong you can join anytime you want or leave but the incentive is to avoid the eliminations
@Silverpawn which you can best do by betting late in the game, but at a premium. Be interesting to see how it gains traction but only allowed to bet on one at a time? Right?
@JussiVilleHeiskanen I believe the question type I used only allows one choice. Which is probably why it isn't used that often.
@Silverpawn oops. You may have hit a snag. Multiple choice dependent means one can bet any number, but you can resolve to only one result and all the others immediately resolve to NO. This is not what you want.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Thanks for the chat - I resolved the market to N/A and have reset it - you can now choose and or multiple doors - Hopefully it will work this time
https://manifold.markets/Silverpawn/which-colour-door-will-be-the-right-SQCSIpEcnd?r=U2lsdmVycGF3bg