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MANIFOLD
Which colour door will be the right door - V2
12
Ṁ1kṀ2.9k
resolved Jun 10
Resolved
NO
Black Door
Resolved
NO
Yellow Door
Resolved
NO
Red door
Resolved
NO
Purple Door
Resolved
NO
Pink door
Resolved
NO
Blue Door
Resolved
NO
Orange Door
Resolved
NO
White Door
Resolved
NO
Grey Door
Resolved
YES
Green Door

Welcome to a Manifold market designed as a clear and dynamic variation of the classic Monty Hall problem!

This is my second attempt at this question the first attempt used the wrong question type so couldn't work as planned

If you are interested in the Monty Hall problem see here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem


1. Initial Setup: This market begins with 10 distinct coloured doors, listed as your betting options. One of these doors is designated as the 'correct' door, and the remaining 9 are 'wrong' doors.

2. Eliminations (by Market Creator): Starting 2025-06-02, I will periodically eliminate a total of 9 'wrong' doors. Eliminations will not necessarily be daily. Each eliminated door will be resolved 'No'. I know the correct door and will always eliminate a wrong one.

  • Timing Note: Eliminations will likely occur at a reasonable hour in the UK (my time zone).
    All question doors will be resolved by 2025-06-30

3. Market Resolution: The market resolves immediately upon the 9th and final 'wrong' door elimination announcement. The single door not eliminated will then resolve 'Yes'.

Resolution Criteria: The winning option is the coloured door NOT eliminated by the market creator. All other options resolve as incorrect.


4. Market Creator's Stance: I will not bet on this market.

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Finally the grey door was eliminated leaving the green door as the winning door.

The 8th door eliminated is the White door

The next door eliminated is the orange door

The next door eliminated is the blue door

The next door eliminated is the pink door

The next door eliminated is the purple door

The 3rd door eliminated is the Red door

The second door eliminated is the yellow door.

The first door eliminated is the Black Door.

bought Ṁ30 YES

I like the idea!