Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?
➕
Plus
35
Ṁ8198
Dec 31
6%
Before September 1st, 2024
65%
Before December 31st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before April 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before June 1st, 2024

Will credible future reports claim that H5N1 was spreading in more than 1 pig farm, in any country, at the following dates?

Dates refer to when the virus was spreading, not when reports are published.

I will not bet in this market.

Related:

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

@Siebe I assume the option for September can resolve NO then, right?

Edit: I guess you said you're waiting four months, nvm.

No search results on Perplexity, USDA, Twitter, Google, Google Trends, and we know it doesn't spread easily between pigs experimentally. Resolved "before April" to NO.

@traders I realize I did not specify WHEN I would resolve this, so I am settling on 4 months after the date (unless multiple people protest this)

Pigs [n=9] are highly susceptible to but do not transmit [n=6] mink-derived highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2024.2353292#d1e506

This market is still completely off, given the 4th includes the previous 3

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules