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MANIFOLD
Will Hamas fire another rocket at Israel during the ceasefire?
38
Ṁ710Ṁ6.7k
resolved Dec 1
Resolved
YES

Any firing during the time when the ceasefire is officially in effect counts. The rocket that was fired 15 minutes after the ceasefire began doesn't count, that's the first one.

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predictedYES

Sorry for the confusion everyone! I forgot there's a possibility that it's not Hamas who fired this rocket. I'll keep this closed for a bit while we wait for a statement from Hamas/PIJ/anyone else about who did it, but If there is no specific statement denying that it was Hamas I will probably keep the YES resolution, as I think we can assume that they are the ones running things.

predictedYES

@Shump Okay, I think this is abundantly clear right now. No denial from Hamas, statement from the IDF, and even more rockets were fired before 7am.

IDF confirmed there was an interception, resolving YES

predictedNO

@Shump But they didn’t confirm it was Hamas.

predictedYES

@Panfilo The IDF has now confirmed the rocket was fired by Hamas.

https://x.com/idf/status/1730455649815822608?s=46&t=WKRyFNaUStQaXCTlWvKsEA

@AviSchwartz Saw this but didn't want to buy yes in case it was PIJ that fired it. Not sure we know, but guessing he would've counted it regardless. A bit hit or miss with the rules "interpretations" here.

predictedYES

@Domer Oh damn, I totally forgot that was a possibility. I'm sorry, I'll unresolve and wait at least until Hamas or PIJ can come up with a statement about who did it.

@Shump Lol, tbc, I think resolving it yes is correct as the rocket is the important part, not PIJ/Hamas (PIJ seems to be cooperating in the ceasefire, I think some of the released hostages have been under their "care").

predictedYES

@Domer In hindsight, I probably should have written it in a way that it doesn't matter exactly who did it, but the market did clearly say Hamas so I will try to stick with that.

predictedNO

@Shump I sure wish I got to trade against the huge Yes in case it turns out not to be!

predictedYES

@Shump When do you intend to unresolve the market? I have Mana to sell. Also, what happens if no one claims the attack?

predictedYES

@Panfilo I will eat the loss if it turns out to be wrong. I deserve it.

predictedYES

@AviSchwartz Shouldn't stay closed for more than a few hours. Check above for what happens if no one says anything.

predictedYES

@Domer I agree. PIJ partook in the October attack, and Hamas has significant influence over PIJ's actions in Gaza. It's doubtful that PIJ launches rockets without approval from Hamas.

Clarification: Rockets fired during any extension of the ceasefire do count

I think their MO right now is to extend the ceasefire as much as they can, and make Israel be the first aggressor by dragging their heels with the hostages. A rocket fired doesn't do much damage; Israel breaking the ceasefire first does better PR damage.

@mattyb That's why the "again" part is there. I'll make it clearer