Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Unemployment rate stays below 4%
20
596
2025
39%
chance

https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions

This is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.

Matt predicts 80% for this question

Matt's calibration for reference:

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Made a time sensitive version of the question, so we can compare Manifold vs. Yglesias: