If a full war between Lebanon and Israel happens, will it be an Israeli invasion?
Jul 2

For the purposes of this market, a full war includes a ground invasion with at least 1000 troops. If this happens, would it be Israel to do so?

Resolves YES if Israel is the first to invade, NO if Hezbollah or anyone else are the first to invade. Will resolve NO even if Israel invades after Hezbollah does. The spirit of the question is to see who will be escalating the situation into a war.

Resolves N/A if a war doesn't happen by July 2024

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@traders Would you object to this market being extended? The possibility of a war is still real, it seems a bit of a shame to NA this.

@Shump I personally wouldn't object to this getting extended instead of n/a'd.

@Shump nope, go ahead and extend

@Shump I would say you ought to N/A it and make a new one just out of principle—you did address this case in the description...

how will you know who invaded first?

predicts YES

@SharpQs Read the description please.

@SharpQs okay… so the first side to move 1000 personnel across the border. And the thinking here is that even though many different claims would be made in media, there would still be credible reporting about which side would actually move 1000 into the other’s territory first. Am i getting this right? Maybe the ISW could verify.

predicts YES

@SharpQs I don't think it's going to be controversial. It's not like both sides are going to invade each other at the same time...

@Shump they’re already exchanging fire. Since oct 8. here’s another way to think about this… on what day did the 1000th ukrainian marine cross the dnipro river to the left bank?

predicts YES

@SharpQs That's not the same thing. The frontline between Ukraine and Russia is not an internationally recognized border. Any massive crossing of the war in Lebanon is sure to herald a new phase in the conflict.
Anyways, if I'm wrong and this does end up being controversial, I will happily defer to ISW, media sources, etc. But just to clarify, the question is who will invade, not who is to blame or anything like that. It doesn't matter if Hezbollah kills 1,000 people and then Lebanon gets invaded, that would still count as an Israeli invasion.


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