Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if at least one eligible binary (Yes/No) question on Manifold Markets resolves to YES before 11:59:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
An eligible market must meet all of the following conditions:
It is a public, standard binary (Yes/No) question on Manifold Markets.
It had a market probability strictly below 10% (< 10.0%) at the exact timestamp this market was created.
It officially resolves to YES (100% Yes) before January 1, 2027 UTC.
Edge cases and exclusions:
Multi-choice, numeric, poll, or unlisted/private markets are excluded; only native binary markets qualify.
Markets that resolve as PROB or N/A (cancelled) do not qualify.
Obvious joke, test, self-resolving/circular markets created purely to manipulate this question, or markets later reversed/overruled by Manifold administrators for fraud or violation of platform rules will be excluded at the creator's discretion.
If no qualifying market resolves to YES before January 1, 2027, this market resolves to NO.
Background
Manifold Markets hosts thousands of active binary prediction markets across politics, science, tech, current events, and personal topics. Historically, events priced below 10% occasionally resolve to Yes due to low liquidity, sudden real-world upsets, or unexpected resolution criteria nuances. This meta-market tests base rate calibration across long-shot contracts across the platform over the holding period.
This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
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