Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $150,000 USD at any point between now and 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2025. The price will be determined based on the daily closing price reported by a reputable financial data source, such as CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko. If Bitcoin does not reach this price threshold within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of May 27, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $109,269 USD. The cryptocurrency has experienced significant growth in recent years, influenced by various factors including regulatory developments, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic trends. Notably, in March 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, aiming to position the United States as a leader in digital assets. (en.wikipedia.org)

Analysts have provided diverse forecasts for Bitcoin's price by the end of 2025. For instance, Standard Chartered projects a price of $200,000, while other predictions range from $180,000 to $250,000. (cnbc.com)

Considerations

Bitcoin's price is highly volatile and influenced by numerous factors, including regulatory changes, technological advancements, market sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions. While some forecasts are optimistic, it's important to consider the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with cryptocurrency investments.