Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the exact number of individuals granted a presidential pardon by Donald Trump on July 4, 2026 (Eastern Time).

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be based on the official database of the Department of Justice Office of the Pardon Attorney. Official White House press releases and presidential proclamations dated July 4, 2026, will serve as the primary source of truth if DOJ website updates are delayed.

• Definition of "Pardon": Only full, conditional, or unconditional pardons count toward the final total. Commutations of sentences (reductions in prison time, fines, or restitution) will not be counted unless they are explicitly accompanied by a pardon.

• Timing: The pardon must be officially signed, announced, or dated July 4, 2026. If a batch of pardons is publicly announced as a "Fourth of July" clemency action but the paperwork is officially dated a day prior or after, they will still be counted toward this market.

• Blanket Pardons: If a blanket pardon is issued for an entire class of people on this day, the market will resolve using the official number of individuals affected as specified by the DOJ or White House. If an exact count of individuals for a blanket pardon is not officially published within 14 days, the market will resolve based on the consensus estimate of credible news sources.

Background

In the months leading up to July 4, 2026, reports from the Wall Street Journal and the Atlantic revealed that White House officials were actively discussing a proposal dubbed "250 pardons for 250 years" to mark the United States' semiquincentennial (250th anniversary of independence). The rumored initiative has reportedly bypassed the traditional DOJ pardon process, relying instead on an informal network of White House aides and political allies, triggering a wave of intense public lobbying from high-profile convicted figures seeking clemency.

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