Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if California Assembly Bill 1127 (AB 1127) is declared unconstitutional or otherwise rendered illegal and unenforceable by a federal or state court of competent jurisdiction before January 1, 2030. This includes a decision that permanently enjoins its enforcement. Temporary Restraining Orders do NOT count.

The market will resolve to "No" if AB 1127 remains legally in effect and enforceable as a California statute on January 1, 2030.

Resolution will be determined by official court rulings from the U.S. District Courts, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, or the U.S. Supreme Court. In the event of a legislative repeal, official legislative tracking websites such as LegiScan or FastDemocracy will serve as sources.

Background

California Assembly Bill 1127, often referred to as the "Glock ban," was signed into law by Governor Gavin Newsom on October 10, 2025. The law is scheduled to take effect on July 1, 2026. It prohibits licensed firearms dealers from selling certain semi-automatic pistols, specifically those with a "cruciform trigger bar" that can be "readily converted" into fully automatic weapons using a "pistol converter" or "Glock switch." While the bill does not explicitly name Glock, its criteria target Glock-style handguns. Existing federal law already prohibits devices that convert semi-automatic firearms to fire automatically. Exemptions are provided for sales to military and law enforcement, and current owners are not required to relinquish their firearms.

Considerations

Immediately following the bill's signing, a coalition of gun rights organizations, including the Firearms Policy Coalition (FPC), National Rifle Association (NRA), and Second Amendment Foundation (SAF), filed a federal lawsuit, Jaymes v. Bonta, on October 13, 2025. The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of California, challenges AB 1127 as unconstitutional, arguing it bans firearms in "common use" and violates the Second Amendment. The legal challenge is expected to proceed through the federal court system, potentially involving appeals to the Ninth Circuit and the U.S. Supreme Court, which could be a lengthy process.