Will all gun ownership be made illegal in the U.S. by end of 2040?
Will all gun ownership be made illegal in the U.S. by end of 2040?
10
1kṀ3872041
4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Requires a nationwide ban for positive resolution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will it be illegal to drive a car in the US by end of 2040?
4% chance
Will the sale of Alcohol be made illegal in the U.S. by end of 2040?
2% chance
Will the consumption of Alcohol be made illegal in the U.S. by end of 2040?
2% chance
Will same-sex marriage be made illegal in the U.S. by end of 2040?
3% chance
Will any Democratic state legalize school shootings by the end of 2032?
2% chance
Will Trump call for further regulation or banning of AR-15 style rifles by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will there be a mandatory military draft in the USA by the end of 2060?
30% chance
Will drones become restricted similarly to guns in the US by 2030?
23% chance
Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2040?
32% chance
Will there be a mandatory military draft in the USA by the end of 2030?
17% chance