Context: The Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments this Tuesday (March 24) regarding the administration's policy of turning back asylum seekers. Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to YES if the U.S. Supreme Court issues an interim order or stay that prevents the federal government from "systematically turning back" asylum seekers before they reach the border, pending a final ruling. It resolves to NO if no such stay is issued by 11:59 PM ET on March 31. Resolution Date: March 31, 2026.

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 37% chance (1 traders, as of Mar 22, 2026).

Will the Supreme Court issue a stay on the "asylum turn-back" policy by March 31, 2026?

Context:

The Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments this Tuesday (March 24) regarding the administration's policy of turning back asylum seekers.

Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves to YES if the U.S. Supreme Court issues an interim order or stay that prevents the federal government from "systematically turning back" asylum seekers before they reach the border, pending a final ruling.
It resolves to NO if no such stay is issued by 11:59 PM ET on March 31.
Resolution Date: March 31, 2026.