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MANIFOLD
Will The Odyssey ever surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day in daily domestic box office gross during their initial runs?
19
Ṁ1kṀ3.1k
resolved Sep 1
Resolved
YES

Resolution will be based on the official "Actuals" (not estimates) reported by Box Office Mojo or The Numbers.

Context: Their daily totals are getting close (at least during the week) and The Odyssey is having significantly stronger holds

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The Odyssey $1,921,045 Spider-Man: Brand New Day $1,920,000- By $1045 Odyssey surpasses Spider Man on Monday 8/31 per The Numbers


@ShaneBo Actually it is super close for spiderman with new adjustment. 1) Spider-Man: Brand New Day $1,921,191 -72% -45% 3,678 $522 $893,742,220 32 2 (3) The Odyssey $1,921,045 -59% -26% 2,617 $734 $565,796,445. It is going to happen Wednesday and Thursday. Tuesday has a spiderman bump.

@brianwang Thanks for calling that out. I held out for a bit past 3 PM despite earlier reporting as that is the typical "actuals" reporting time, and assumed this was final, but looks like I didn't wait long enough . Seems like it will definitely happen, but I'd want to unresolve if that's possible. @mods are you able to help with this?

@ShaneBo ah we can, but this got lost in the backlog. I assume it's too late now, but ping me if you still need a change.

@Stralor all good, it was a fairly certain outcome and took just over a day for the matching outcome to be 100%

Post weekend update: The Odyssey surpassed Spiderman on the weekend international box office by about 4.7 million but trailed by 7.9 million at the domestic weekend box office. However this domestic result was driven by Spiderman now having a 1000 theater edge over the Odyssey as they had roughly equal per theater earnings

Spider Man dropped 43% WoW compared to 27% drop for The Odyssey. Consistency of decay rates(which was at risk with the higher theater loss of The Odyssey) still points to a fair chance of passing Tuesday or Wednesday.

Note to traders: If they maintain similar decay rates Odyssey will surpass sometime next week. BUT loss of theater count this weekend is 50% higher for Odyssey versus Spider Man