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MANIFOLD
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avengers: Endgame"? (>$2.8B worldwide)
2
Ṁ100Ṁ124
2027
20%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Spider-Man: Brand New Day (2026) achieves a lifetime worldwide box office gross of $2,797,501,328 ($2.79 billion) or more by February 28, 2027. If it does not reach this milestone by that date, the market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be determined using the official worldwide box office figures reported on:

If there is a slight discrepancy between the two sources, the higher of the two reported figures will be used. Any box office adjustments or re-releases that occur after February 28, 2027, will not count toward resolution.

Market context
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