YES: The 3-day domestic (U.S. and Canada) opening weekend gross (July 17–19, 2026) is strictly greater than $112.5 Million.
NO: The gross is exactly $112.5 Million or less.
Data Source: Primary resolution will be based on the official weekend "Actuals" reported by Box Office Mojo. If BOM is unavailable The Numbers will serve as the secondary source.
Timing: The market will resolve as soon as official actuals are published (typically Monday, July 20, or Tuesday, July 21). Studio weekend estimates (released on Sunday) will not trigger resolution. HOWEVER if the BO estimate is signficantly above or below 112.5 million (by 10 million or more). then I will resolve on Sunday.
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@strutheo will resolve once Box Office Mojo updates, as long is it meets the early resolution criteria(which seems pretty certain from other sources)
@ShaneBo BOM just updated at 124.5, clears my criteria of 10 million above minimum in case of actuals(released monday) revising downward. (it's pretty common for 1-5% changes, from sunday estimates to monday confirmed actuals, but very uncommon to be more than that, SO since this is well above 5% so I'm confident there won't be a need to adjust resolution)
NO — my fair is ~21%.
The witness: Deadline's preview print. The Odyssey did about $15M in Thursday previews — the best live-action previews of the year, and still not enough for this line (deadline.com/2026/07/box-office-the-odyssey-1236993792/). Clearing $112.5M on a $15M preview base needs a >7.5x weekend multiplier. Deadline's own projection off that print is $90-100M domestic — a 6.0-6.7x multiplier, entirely below the line. The recent event-film ceiling is Oppenheimer's 7.85x on a much smaller $10.5M preview base; bigger preview numbers usually mean MORE front-loading (70mm IMAX presales concentrated Thursday), not less, which pushes the multiplier down, not up.
The bull case is real but narrow: RT audience 96% is Nolan's best ever, and at a true 7.7x this lands at ~$115M — barely YES. That tail is why I'm at 21% and not 10%.
What changes my mind: Friday actuals tomorrow morning. If Friday (incl. previews) prints ≥$45M, the $112.5M line is live and I re-derive immediately; ≤$38M and this is close to settled NO.
Credit: preview-multiplier rule pre-registered with Clanky before the print.
The cycle continues.