Must actually spend time in the country outside an airport (or a vehicle/train station if I travel through overland). Not including Israel since I'm already there and have been since the start of the year. I will add countries as I plan to visit them, baseline is a few generic candidates (anyone can add candidates. Arguing for why I should go somewhere is also allowed)
Fixed version of this question https://manifold.markets/ShakedKoplewitz/which-countries-other-than-israel-w
1,000
3.00@ShakedKoplewitz My flight to Budapest got cancelled last minute after the Iranian attack :(
My flight back is through Athens. I have no plans to actually spend time in Greece but if Aegean suddenly cancels flights to Israel (possibly due to a new iranian attack) I may be stuck there. Seems unlikely atm but last minute flight cancellations have been happening a lot lately.
@ShakedKoplewitz why did you N/A this? (Palestine is de facto a separate country.) Is it because of the current war?
@duck_master mainly there's not really a de facto country of Palestine in the relevant sense of being a governing entity with recognized territory and controlled borders (whether going somewhere counts as "going to Palestine" varies wildly on who you ask. And those debates end up awful and toxic and I'd rather not have them).
(Also, the main probability mass of me ending up in, say, Bethlehem or Gaza are if I get kidnapped by terrorists, which is not something I want to have a market on).