Seems pretty close to my credence of gold actually missing, although I think there's nontrivial p(gold IS somehow missing but MSM equivocates and doesn't say it), this happens maybe 15% of the time that gold is missing. Thanks for the alternate market!

https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/gold-missing-from-fort-knox

Except it will resolve based on reporting from:

Resolution criteria not related to sources (such as the exact amount of gold that needs to be missing etc.) is the same as in the original market. 

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